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Playoff Scenarios

News Blake Theisen

Playoff Clinching Scenarios Ahead of Final Weekend of Regular Season

Fighting Saints Still Alive for 4th-6th Seed

Dubuque, IA — With just one games remaining in the 2022-23 regular season for all 16 USHL teams, there is still a lot left to be decided before the 2023 Clark Cup Playoffs begin on Monday, April 24. From the number one overall seed in the Eastern Conference, to the sixth seed, here is a break down of how things could shake out entering the final weekend of the season.

Current Eastern Conference Standings 4/20/23 --- Tiebreakers Held -- Remaining Game

1. y-Chicago Steel - 83 pts, 35 ROW --- Clinched Top 2 seed and first round bye -- @MUS
2. x-Youngstown Phantoms - 79 pts, 31 ROW -- NTDP
3. x-USA Hockey NTDP - 77 pts, 35 ROW --- Holds tiebreaker over Youngstown -- @YNG
4. x-Green Bay Gamblers - 69 pts, 30 ROW --- Holds tiebreakers 2-7 over Dubuque, and tiebreakers over Cedar Rapids -- MAD
5. x-Dubuque Fighting Saints - 68 pts, 30 ROW --- Holds tiebreakers over Cedar Rapids -- @WAT
6. x-Cedar Rapids RoughRiders - 67 pts, 28 ROW -- @DM
7. e-Muskegon Lumberjacks - 55 pts, 25 ROW -- CHI
8. e-Madison Capitols - 38 pts, 17 ROW -- @GB

*ROW = Regulation + Overtime Wins

The Fighting Saints Cling to a Chance for Home Ice

Dubuque has put itself in a position to still be able to grab the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. However, they no longer control their own destiny. Entering the final night of the season, the Fighting Saints can finish anywhere from fourth to sixth seed. The chase for the fourth seed is between Green Bay and Dubuque. In the event of a points tie between Dubuque and Green Bay, Dubuque MUST finish with a higher ROW than Green Bay to win any tie breakers. Cedar Rapids does not hold any tiebreakers over Dubuque, and MUST finish with more points outright to pass them for the fifth seed.

Dubuque finishes FOURTH with:

    • A win in regulation or overtime AND a Green Bay loss of any kind
    • A win of any kind AND a Green Bay loss in regulation

Dubuque finishes FIFTH with:

    • A win of any kind AND a Green Bay win of any kind
    • A shootout win AND a Green Bay loss in overtime/shootout
    • A loss in a shootout/overtime
    • A loss in regulation AND a Cedar Rapids loss of any kind

Dubuque finishes SIXTH with:

    • A loss in regulation AND a Cedar Rapids win of any kind

Expect for the Fighting Saints to still go for it all on Saturday night. With Cedar Rapids and Green Bay losing on Friday, the window is still there for the Fighting Saints to claim home ice. At worst, a win ensures them of a much shorter road trip. A loss could send the Fighting Saints headed east to take on the winner of USA vs. Youngstown on Saturday night.

Green Bay's Path to Stay Home

Update: It's simple now for Green Bay. Win and stay at home. It doesn't matter how the Gamblers do it. Two points keeps them ahead of Dubuque and forces the Fighting Saints or RoughRiders to head to the Resch Center.

The Gamblers have full control of their own destiny entering Friday night's matchup in Madison. However, a loss, could throw a wrench into their hopes to remain at home for the opening round of the playoffs. Green Bay can secure the FOURTH seed with two wins of any fashion, regardless of out of town results. The Gamblers could still fall as low as sixth, but they do hold the current tiebreakers over both Dubuque and Cedar Rapids. In order to fall to sixth, Cedar Rapids would need to finish with more points outright.

RoughRiders Rough Road to Home Ice

Update: Cedar Rapids can no longer get home ice the opening round of the playoffs following a 2-1 loss to Des Moines on Friday night. The RoughRiders can finish as high as fifth, but the must finish with more points than Dubuque as they do not hold any of the tie breakers.

Cedar Rapids has the most difficult chase to grab home ice. They hold no tie breakers and sit two points back of Green Bay and one back of Dubuque. To keep it simple, the RoughRiders need to finish with more points outright than Green Bay or Dubuque if they have hopes of passing either one when the regular season comes to an end on Saturday night.

Steel One Point Away From Controlling the East

Update: Chicago clinched the number one seed in the East with a 7-2 win over Muskegon on Friday night.

After picking up a 6-3 win over Dubuque on Saturday night at home, the Chicago Steel locked up a top two seed and a first round bye in the Clark Cup Playoffs. This is significant for them because they will be without superstar Macklin Celebrini, who leads the USHL in scoring as a U17 player, until at the least April 27th. Celebrini is currently with team Canada at the U18 World Championships in Switzerland. If Canada advances all the way to the gold or bronze medal games, Celebrini would miss the entirety of the first two rounds of the playoffs. Now Chicago looks to lock down home ice throughout the Eastern Conference slate. They need just one point this weekend on the road in Muskegon to secure the top seed in the conference.

USA and Youngstown Battle for Number Two

Update: Youngstown grabbed a 3-1 win over USA on Friday night, handling half of their job to secure a bye. The Phantoms need just one point on Saturday to secure the second seed. For USA to jump back up to second, they must win in regulation on the road on Saturday.

In the only matchup between two Eastern Conference opponents that are both playoff bound, USA and Youngstown has arguably the most intrigue and most on the line. The American's are now represented by their U17 squad the rest of the way, and they're without their best players as well who have joined up with the U18 squad at the aforementioned World Championships. The good news though is they only need to win one game in regulation this weekend against Youngstown.

The Phantoms have to pass USA in points outright to claim the number two seed and grab the last available first round bye. Both teams enter the weekend tied at 77 points, but USA controls the tiebreaker no matter what. For the Phantoms to grab the bye, they need to secure three of a possible four points this weekend. Anything less than that, and USA will earn themselves Monday-Wednesday off, at least from game action.

Playoff Schedule

This season, the USHL has introduced another change to the Clark Cup Playoff format. Each team is no longer guaranteed a home matchup. In fact, that's why grabbing the fourth seed is so tantalizing for Dubuque and Green Bay. The fifth and sixth seed can't see home ice until a berth into the Conference Finals.

First Round (best of three): 3 seed vs. 6 seed & 4 seed vs. 5 seed - All three games at high seed - April 24-26
Conference Semifinals (best of three): Winner of 3 vs. 6 @ 2 seed & Winner of 4 vs. 5 @ 1 seed - All three games at high seed - April 28 – April 30
Conference Finals (best of five): High seed hosts opening two games and game five if necessary - May 5-11
Clark Cup Final (best of five): High seed hosts opening two games and game five if necessary - May 13-23

This article will be updated as games are completed to the best of our ability and knowledge to reflect the accurate possibilities for the Fighting Saints in the opening round of the 2023 Clark Cup Playoffs.
 
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